What About Egypt?

A few days ago we had a chance to peer into Egypt. We drove right by a commercial vehicle border crossing near the city of Nitzana. Below is a picture of the Egyptian side of the crossing in which you can see the Egyptian flag. The other picture shows more of the Egyptian border facility in the Sinai desert.





Even before we left on our trip the government fell in Tunisia which inspired the protests that ultimately forced Mubarak from power. While we were still in Colorado people were asking us if the protests had caused us to be concerned about our safety and if we would cancel our trip. The answers to those questions were just a little and no. Given the events of the last few weeks they haven’t changed.

Although we’re only about 20 miles from the Egyptian border here in Sde Boker, the events in Egypt haven’t had much effect on us. The protest movement that is sweeping the Arab world is unlikely to come to Israel. It’s already a participatory democracy. The protests are also unlikely to spill over the border into Israel. Between us and Cairo is the entire Sinai desert and the Israeli army. The Arabian protest movement is unlikely to lead to a new Middle East war anytime soon. The countries involved will be far too concerned with internal affairs to get involved in any outward aggression.

Despite having established that I’m not immediately concerned for our personal safety, I do see the potential for such unrest in Egypt to affect our trip over time. One possibility is that Egyptian security forces in the Sinai will be distracted by the change in government, and as a result, be less vigilant in keeping terrorist groups from using the Sinai to launch rockets and other types of attacks into Israel. Such an attack did take place last summer, when a terrorist group launched a rocket from the Sinai. The rocket actually overshot Israel and tragically killed and injured a handful of people in the Jordanian resort town of Aqaba. So far, that possibility has yet to manifest itself. Indeed, just the other day, Egyptian security forces caught a terrorist cell in the Sinai attempting to perpetrate an attack and stopped it.

The second, and much more likely possibility, is that things in Egypt don’t calm down soon enough to enable us to visit that country as we had planned. Already there seem to be disagreements over the authority the army holds in Egypt, with the army calling for an end to strikes and public protests. The other day a friend of ours here in Sde Boker canceled a long planned trip to Cairo. There are also news reports today that a CBS reporter was brutally assaulted in Tahrir Square a few days ago. It seems unlikely that the situation will be stable enough to allow for a family trip in the next few months.

But enough about me. The obvious follow up question to ask is whether or not the fall of Mubarak, and the wave of protests engulfing the Arab world is a good thing or bad thing for the United States and Israel. The answer is complex and depends on a wide variety of unknowns. Before I speculate on this question (I wouldn’t pretend to actually answer it), there is a distinction I’d like to make: What’s good for Israel isn’t always what’s good for the U.S. and vice versa. Given the complex relationship between the U.S. and Israel, however, I’m going to ignore those differences for the purposes of this blog entry and just focus on common interests.

That said, I want to make it clear I’m delighted for the Egyptian people. It’s rare that a society is able to escape from the rule of a corrupt and brutal autocrat. To do so, as the Egyptians have done, with so little violence (at least perpetrated by the protesters) and widespread public support, is even rarer. The Egyptian people have long suffered under the thumb of such despotic kleptocracies. I hope they truly will establish a new government that enables widespread democratic participation as well as the human rights we enjoy in the U.S.

And there lies the rub. It’s not at all clear what sort of government will replace Mubarak. The army has pledged to modify the constitution, hold elections, and yield to a civilian government in six months. It remains to be seen whether it really does so and what form that government takes.

The worst possible outcome would seem to be if an Islamic supremacist group were to take over this new government. There’s already widespread precedent in the region for this to happen, with Iran, Lebanon, Gaza, and Afghanistan being prime examples. The Muslim Brotherhood is one of the better organized institutions functioning in Egypt right now, and it counts among its alumni Ayman al-Zawahiri, the second in command at al-Qaeda.

Even the best possible outcome, a democratically elected government with widespread public support, would still present significant risks to the U.S. and Israel. Many Egyptians are quite contemptuous of the United States and Israel, and any government that reflects such public opinion would likely be hostile towards American and Israeli interests. For example, a recent Zogby poll taken before Mubarak’s ouster found that 85% of Egyptians had an unfavorable attitude toward the U.S., and 92% named the U.S. as one of two nations that are the greatest threat to them. 90% also named Israel as one of two nations that are the greatest threat to them.

Notwithstanding such hostility, the U.S. and Israel would still be better off with a more democratic Egypt, and hopefully, a more democratic Arab world. Such a world would allow for more constructive dialogue which would likely lead to better outcomes than are currently being achieved. To have more prosperous, communicative, and educated societies on its borders could well enable Israel to engage in more positive relationships with its neighbors. Such societies would likely be better able to persuade the U.S. and Israeli to modify those policies they find objectionable. The availability of a channel for expressing disagreement and exploring solutions could well lead to a reduction in frustration and violence.

Certainly, recent events will not lead to a Middle East utopia anytime soon, or ever for that matter. There will likely still be plenty of hostility, violence, and conflict. I only mean to suggest that a Middle East that features more governments that are more responsive to their populations would be a better Middle East than the one we have now. In light of the continually degrading situation we’ve experienced in the past few decades, even slightly better would constitute a major improvement.




This is a picture of a just a tiny part of a public art work we saw in Nitzana. Titled Path of Peace, and produced by the Israeli artist Dani Karavan, it consists of 100 concrete columns, each featuring the word peace in a different language. The entire work is over 3 km long. The column featured here bears the word Namaste, which means peace in the Nepali language.