Our families often tell us that they’re concerned about our safety while we’re here in the Middle East. We understand those concerns. It’s been an especially turbulent time to be here. During our trip we’ve seen the fall of the Egyptian and Tunisian governments, civil war break out in Libya, widespread protests and brutal suppression in Syria, a missile campaign conducted by groups in Gaza, an attack by Hamas on an Israeli school bus using an anti-tank weapon, numerous counterattacks by the IDF on sites in Gaza, several other terrorist attacks on Israeli citizens, the killing of Osama Bin Laden, and now, the Nakba day protests. It’s no surprise that our families are worried for us.
The good news, at least for our family, is that while we never felt imminently threatened by any of these events, we feel even less threatened now. The Palestinians seem to have been impressed by the effectiveness of the largely nonviolent protests that took place in Egypt and Tunisia. For the time being, it seems that such protests will largely displace terrorist attacks. Indeed, a poll of Palestinians published in the Jerusalem Post found that “almost 70% of Palestinians were opposed to the firing of rockets from the Gaza Strip into Israel.” Furthermore, only 5% of the respondents supported “military operations” as a means to end Israeli occupation.
The tumult in the region also seems to have opened up richer opportunities for peace than we’ve seen for a long time. Both sides are showing signs of wearying of the battle. The poll I quoted above also found that 40% of Palestinians favor restarting peace negotiations, while an additional 32% at least have mixed feelings about such negotiations. Only 25% of the respondents said they were actually opposed to negotiations. Furthermore, the rejectionists among the Palestinians seem to be marginalized for the time being. That’s a major reason why Hamas agreed to a unity agreement with Fatah. Fatah’s leadership is currently focused on providing good government and economic growth, and the lull in terrorist attacks leaves an opening for change.
The bad news is that the leadership of both sides seems ill prepared to take advantage of such historic opportunities. Netanyahu seems to be delighted to have the unity agreement to equate Fatah with Hamas and reject negotiations outright. Abbas and Fayyad appear to have given up on the Israelis altogether and are focused on being legitimized by a vote in the UN General Assembly in September. Both sides seem to be too far apart to come to an agreement, with each insisting on conditions that are complete nonstarters for the other. The leadership of both sides depends on the support of constituencies who would go berserk if a peace agreement were signed.
If no progress is made on peace negotiations before the UN vote, I’m concerned for our Israeli friends. Every day, the country is treated more and more like a pariah state, making it ever more isolated. The quasi-nonviolent protests that feature suicide protesters seem to be even more threatening to Israel over the long run than the rockets from Gaza and the terrorist attacks. It’s likely that the revolutions taking place in neighboring countries are likely to result in regimes that are even more hostile to Israel than those in place now. If after the UN vote in September there is not some sort of peace agreement close at hand, or in serious negotiations, a third intifada is likely to break out. Such an intifada can only bring tragedy and heartbreak for both sides.
I hope that President Obama, with his recent global acclaim still intact for having ordered the raid on Osama Bin Laden’s hideout, can prevail on both sides to make the sacrifices it will take to get out of their hardened self-defeating patterns. This being the Middle East, chances for a breakthrough would have to seem terribly bleak before one could actually occur. In the meantime, we’ll continue our trip with all due caution, but not alarm. Hopefully, all the friends we’ve made here will be safe and prosperous after our return to the US at the end of July.
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